Before leaving for Odessa –from which we have just returned- we wrapped up a series of interviews that have really changed our research direction. In a jam packed week, we spoke to a whole range of officials that had some very interesting things to say about the status of reform. Going into these meeting we had a good idea how communication between reform groups and the government worked at a very broad national level. We wanted to narrow the discussion down to the nature of the dialogue between military leaders and those in the government who are leading the reform of the military. As things came together we were surprised to find that there is currently no dialogue, because there is no reform of the military happening. What remains is still very much a Soviet structured military, lacking training and experience with out of date equipment. This would never be admitted to though by the Ukrainian military here. Many of the officers that are serving have a great deal of pride in their military traditions. The American Deputy Defense Attache here pointed out that they all will attest to being a very capable and active military. Even so the amount of money that the military is limited to –only further reduced by the recent IMF loan requirements- is restricting the amount of training and operational experience that they can attain. Although this may be their official position, other officers who have recently left the military would say otherwise.
A military analyst for the Razumkov Center, the leading national security think tank in the country, described how when he was in the Air Force an officer at the Lieutenant Colonel level would have had a full operational 24 aircraft squadron. At the time he left though a General would be lucky to even have 20 aircraft available in his command. Without a publicly perceived threat to the nation-state, maintaining, let alone reforming the military has lost all priority in the eyes of the people. That sentiment is not just in the public eyes but also in the government. The current administration according to the Razumkov Center and several other anonymous sources describe the current administration as not having the political will to maintain the military. According to them the Ukrainian equivalent of the National Security Council has only met twice since the election and has only produced a vague list of defense related issues that had neither established priorities nor resources for the problems at hand. When the Razumkov Center had prepared an extensive national security analysis and subsequent recommendations for the new administration after the election no one showed up for the presentation. At first they thought they had been blown off. Four weeks later they had come to find out that the administration had not appointed, and still did not have a point man for defense issues. This seems to be the story that people are telling about the current state of the military. At the American Embassy, the Slovakian Embassy -the current point Embassy for NATO-, the NATO Liason Office, the President of the Atlantic Council, and the President for the NATO Civic League the theme of budget cuts and personnel reductions, is not leaving any money or motivation to keep the military on the road to reform for modern standards.
This has some very concerning implications given the states new stance on its place in geopolitics. Yanukovych has public stated, and recently signed into law “non-bloc status” for Ukraine politically. The measure has effectively halted the previous attempts to join NATO, and will likely keep any prospects of joining the CWIS off the table as well. For now, that is. To maintain a non-bloc status a country would need to be able to provide the security guarantees required to ensure its own sovereignty. Off the record, we have heard that at the current rate of military budget cuts, lack of reform, and decaying equipment and training, non bloc status is unrealistic. The Ukraine is a very large country. The size and expense of a new modern military-one that reformers were aiming for- capable of covering all the air, sea and land here is simply financially not an option. Even so, there may not even be an outdated Soviet style military here to do that either. More and more officers are becoming aware of the standards of living and significant careers their Western counter parts have in NATO militaries. In comparison, many of the benefits members of the military here are suppose to have, such as housing, job training, and pensions are not happening. As these problems continue to get worse and worse, the government continues to make more and more promises to increase pay and increase benefits despite the massive upcoming budget cuts. At the Center for the Retraining of Discharged Military Personnel, officers and soldiers are provided job training and work counseling for their careers after the military. This is by law something the entire military is entitled to but is not getting the funding to provide for everyone. In fact the majority of the funding for these projects comes from USAID and NATO donors. The officer in charge of the Kiev Center explained to us that at the current rates of recruitment the military here is able to keep up with the numbers of the soldiers and officers who are leaving the military but it is not clear how much longer this can happen. Past generations and many current officers are proud of the traditions they had as a Soviet military. To them their sense of duty outweighed their lack of resources. It was honorable to do your job even if you did not have the proper equipment or training.
The generations of soldiers and officers who remember their Soviet roots are fading fast. Many of the younger officers and sailors see their peers living much better lives in the civilian fields around them. When they are told reform is around the corner and the government continues to not follow through on their word, the idea that the military might get up and walk away is very real. Already morale of the military is low because of their standard of living and the government’s promises are becoming “empty sounds”. This makes the possibility of a non bloc Ukrainian state even more unlikely. When the government here or the people realize they are no longer able to provide their own security guarantees the only possibility will be to turn to an outside source. Which outside source they turn to seems to be the next big question and an issue the United States should be taking a greater interest in.
~Joe Travers
Field Notes from the 2010 ALLIES JRP Ukraine 